France is a political mess right now. The fall of Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s government within three months of administration after an unprecedented loss of no-confidence vote. Now it is expected of Emmanuel Macron to step up and take command so that the political and economic crisis can be averted.
How and why did the government fall?
The no-confidence vote was called in by the hard-left New Popular Front (NFP), which led the charge in the National Assembly. They were later joined by the far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, which created a united front against the prime minister’s government. With the crucial support of Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally, a majority of 331 MPs in the 577-member chamber voted to oust the government. These two ideologically opposite groups found common ground in their opposition to Barnier’s austerity budget and his use of special powers to bypass parliamentary approval.
The term of Barnier was less than 3 months, which hadn’t happened in France for over 60 years. Speculation has also been made on the style of Macron’s presidency, as Five Prime Ministers have come and gone since he became the president in 2017. The snap parliamentary elections conducted in summer of this year caused a hung parliament as no party had absolute majority which led to a coalition of parties which weren’t ideologically aligned.
The reason for the calling of no confidence motion was due to the forceful push of the 2025 budget by Barnier’s government. Barnier stated that this “will make things more serious and more difficult” before the no confidence vote. This caused chaos, and a demand for a new Prime Minister was raised so that an acceptable budget can be passed with parliament’s approval.
Reports suggest that defense minister Sebastien Lecornu and Ally of Macron Francis Bayrou might be the next Prime Minister.
With two years left of Macron’s Presidency, there are rising demands for early Presidential elections, and has also been asked by many to resign. The President has also been called a “fallen republican monarch”. This all is coming at a time when the reopening event of Notre Dame Cathedral is to be held two days later.
Economic implications:
The markets seem agitated as strikes have been called by many unions which might cause hostility on the streets. Analysts at JP Morgan say that this is “Idiosyncratic story with limitless systematic risks”. Everyone is afraid that this might cause a repeat of the Eurozone debt crisis which sparked around 2009 in Greece. This is a major event to be concerned about as this caused the government borrowing costs with yield on government debt in Ireland, Italy, Spain and Portugal to rise from 2% to 7% in 2009 and 20% in 2011.
The 10 Year spread of German and French bonds might end as well. The French bonds had a privilege that allowed the French government to consider an expansionary policy that will now come to an end.
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